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There are a few points I disagree with here. And I think — albeit perhaps indirectly — Joe Biden is very much part of these negotiations, for just the reason TPM Reader PT says: What Russia needs most is relief from sanctions and those are not under the Ukrainian government’s control. There is also a lot of broken glass that won’t be fixed even if all the sanctions were rescinded immediately. Having said all this, if the Ukrainian government said ‘hey we have an agreement that’s good for our country. We need you to drop the sanctions to make it happen,’ I think we’d be hard pressed to say, ‘Sorry, but we’re still too pissed about this.’ And yet the nature of Putin’s government, the depth of its revisionism and more, seems much more menacing than it did a month ago. There’s really no winding back to the clock to December 2021.

Here’s TPM Reader PT

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: The person who’s not involved in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and who ought to be, is Joe Biden.

I say this because a big part of what Russia is going to want out of a settlement with Ukraine is the removal of economic sanctions, which is not subject to Ukraine’s control. Ultimately it’s the free world that Russia needs to convince to relax those sanctions. At this point, Joe Biden is the undisputed leader of the free world. Thus it’s Biden that Putin needs to work with on this.

The domestic U.S. political moment is bound up around the fact that there is near universal support for Ukraine and opposition and antipathy for Russia. And yet, the leader of the Republican Party has been a consistent and obsequious supporter of Russian strongman Vladimir Putin for the last seven years and even up until this month. Indeed, so much that he actually worked with Putin to blackmail the current Ukrainian President who is now the recipient of worldwide and fairly deserved plaudits. I mean, he literally got impeached over it!

Even Trump himself is now rushing to reposition himself from what he was saying only a couple weeks ago when he praised Putin’s genius for annexing Ukrainian territory. In a new interview in The Washington Examiner he says that this new Putin is definitely different from the old Putin who — maybe as recently as two weeks ago? — was so awesome. “I think he’s changed. I think he’s changed. It’s a very sad thing for the world. He’s very much changed.”

From the Examiner …

“I’m surprised — I’m surprised. I thought he was negotiating when he sent his troops to the border. I thought he was negotiating,” Trump told the Washington Examiner on Tuesday evening during a wide-ranging telephone interview from Mar-a-Lago, his private social club and political headquarters in Palm Beach, Florida. “I thought it was a tough way to negotiate but a smart way to negotiate.”

“I figured he was going to make a good deal like everybody else does with the United States and the other people they tend to deal with — you know, like every trade deal. We’ve never made a good trade deal until I came along,” Trump added.“And then he went in — and I think he’s changed. I think he’s changed. It’s a very sad thing for the world. He’s very much changed.”

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says Ukraine and Russia are now discussing “concrete formulations, that are close to agreement.” He says that potential agreement is on the basis of a Ukrainian proposal of neutrality on the model on Sweden or Austria, in which Ukraine forswears NATO membership but has its own military and independent foreign policy and is free to seek EU membership and whatever other ties with other countries it wants. This seems in line with what I mentioned yesterday that President Zelensky appears to have been telegraphing. He’s made a series of statements in recent days saying he’s soured on NATO, that NATO’s never going to accept Ukraine, etc. That may be true as a prognostication and I’m sure he’s not happy about it. But the logic of saying it seems aimed at softening the ground for including non-membership as part of a peace settlement. Take it off the table yourself, accept it through your own agency rather than as a diktat. This part about Zelensky is my interpretation. But I’m pretty confident this is correct. I also suspect these negotiations may be much closer to fruition than people are thinking.

A few other points.

Let me share a few observations on the situation in Ukraine. I’ll put most of this under the fold since I really want you to read the posts below about our membership drive. Please sign up!

One of the many fascinating dimensions of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is rooted in language. When this story moved to the center of our news in the United States almost a decade ago I had the rough and incorrect sense that Ukrainian was something like a deep regional dialect of Russian — distinct but certainly mutually intelligible. But this is not the case. One of my guides in learning about this has been our Josh Kovensky, who is a fluent Russian speaker and lived in Ukraine for three years working as a journalist before coming to TPM. He’s described it to me as more like the difference between some of the more proximate Romance languages, like Spanish and Italian. He describes being able to get some of the gist of what someone is saying in Ukrainian. But it’s imperfect at best. Basically it’s someone speaking a different language. I have also heard it compared to the difference between English and Dutch — two closely related West Germanic languages which are not remotely mutually intelligible.

RUSSIAN NEGOTIATORS TODAY SAID that they’re making progress in ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine and expect to sign a document in the next few days. On its face, that’s not very credible given what we see unfolding in the country. Even more so because it is hard to imagine what terms both sides would currently agree to for a ceasefire or end of the conflict. What complicates the picture though is that one of President Zelensky’s top advisors, Mykhailo Podolyak, who is involved in the negotiations posted a short video today saying something broadly similar. Podolyak said Russian negotiators are no longer making ultimatums and are “looking far more properly” at the situation on the ground. He says he thinks “concrete results” are possible in the next few days.

Again, who knows what that means. But it’s similar enough to the comments from the Russian side to make one think there may be some movement forward.

I must say that I am looking forward to the raft of articles in the works from the Times, WaPo, Politico and above all Axios about the GOP’s reckoning with the fact that their party leader (and most of his party) has spent the last several years toadying and obsequiously embracing Vladimir Putin and Russia. I jest of course since I have little hope that any of these pieces will be written. But the leader of this party has spent the last seven years fawning over the increasingly dictatorial leader of the country who has now tipped the world into the biggest international crisis in a generation and I guess we’re somehow not going to talk about that. I mean, he actually got impeached over it and for participating in a scheme to make the country Russia just invaded easier to invade.