Prime

I’ve been dunking wildly on the on-going implosion of the British political system. I am going to continue to do so — both because I enjoy it and because “implosion” is an accurate representation of what has happened. But there’s one uncomfortable reality I need to address. Liz Truss came into power on the votes of a minuscule slice of the population which is traditionalist but marginal to the current UK — 70k or 80k mostly older white conservative men from Southern England. She pledged to defy reality with old school British tenacity. Everything blew up in her face and now after six weeks she’s out on her ass as the shortest tenured British PM in history. (Some say in three hundred years but people before 300 years ago weren’t PMs.)

Here’s my saying “hahahaha.” But let’s be clear that this is a political system working. Yes, shambolically and after years of dysfunction. But this is a political system working and one working in ways ours seems increasingly unable to.

Bloomberg reports that administration officials are for the first time considering national security reviews of Elon Musk’s increasingly international-man-of-mystery business deals stretching from Silicon Valley to Crimea. The specifics turn on the effort to buy Twitter, now with what appears to be an opaque group of foreign investors as well as his on-again, off-again hints that he might block access to his StarLink telecommunications system over Ukraine.

Of course all of this is playing out with the backdrop of his increasingly pro-Russian comments about the war in Ukraine.

Last night the ABC affiliate in Phoenix reported this incident of what appears to be harassment of a voter at a ballot drop off box. The parking lot is crawling with “activists” who are the legally prescribed number of feet from the ballot box. But one guy drives up in a car and allegedly accuses the voter of being a “mule.” Here’s video the ABC15 posted last night on Twitter.

I’ve been laughing at and really endlessly entertained by Liz Truss’s momentary pratfall Prime Ministership. There’s much discussion of the UK’s now apparently chronic political instability. There will soon have been five Tory Prime Ministers in the last seven years. In the 31 years between 1979 and 2010 the country had four Prime Ministers. Having “reclaimed its sovereignty” in 2016 with Brexit, the country is now firmly shackled to the judgment of the bond markets. I laugh at this chaos; you may laugh. It’s funny. But any laughter should come in the realization that all of this is the impact and inevitable collateral damage of the Brexit vote in 2015 in which the UK simply decided to light itself on fire for no reason at all.

You can look at the averages and — unfortunately — they keep ticking down for Democrats as we careen toward the big day on November 8th. Of course, the election is already in full swing in numerous early voting states. To keep up on early voting trends I always recommend following Michael McDonald who is the source on this topic. You can follow his feed here on Twitter. (He’s not the Doobie Brothers keyboardist, but still first rate.)

We’re really getting down to the wire on the midterms and in ways that aren’t necessarily inspiring if you’re a Democrat. The conventional wisdom now has it that after a summer of Dobbs backlash that buoyed Democrats, inflation and the economy have now reclaimed center stage putting Republicans back in the ascendent. Is this true? Is there evidence to support this?

There’s definitely some.

Russia’s military situation in Ukraine has become so dire in recent weeks that, as you know, there’s been increasing discussion of whether President Putin might resort to the use of nuclear weapons to stabilize it or overawe Ukraine’s western allies into discontinuing aid. We think, rightly, about how terrifying this prospect is. But we shouldn’t forget that it is also a gauge of just how bad Russia is doing in conventional terms. But Putin may get relief if he’s able to hold on until January when a Republican House would block any more military aid to Ukraine.

That is what Kevin McCarthy is now signaling.

We’ve already written a lot in recent months about the near certainty that a Republican House will threaten a national debt default next year to force Joe Biden to essentially undo the legislative agenda he passed in his first two years in office. I didn’t realize that they are apparently focused on major cuts to Social Security and Medicare, or as they are calling it “structural changes” to the two programs. I take this from this morning’s PunchBowl newsletter.

Punchbowl cites this BGov piece and apparently their own reporting. But I’m reminded that our Kate Riga was on this aspect of the story on Friday, indeed citing the same BGov piece.

The Miami Herald has another richly reported article on the migrant bamboozling operation Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida ran in San Antonio, Texas — the one that left 50 Venezuelan migrants in Martha’s Vineyard and spawned an on-going criminal investigation in Bexar County, Texas. The article is paywalled. So if you’re a subscriber give it a read. If not I want to summarize a few key new pieces of information, drawn mainly from public documents the DeSantis administration has been compelled to divulged under Florida’s sunshine law as well as on-the-ground reporting from the Herald.