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This is just a tiny morsel of data. So it may simply be noise. But it caught my eye. Recent polls in two key senate races show big spreads between registered and likely voters. Traditionally likely voter screens tend to favor Republicans, who are more regular voters. In recent years though that has been less consistent. A CNN/SSRS poll conducted 9/26 to 10/2 in Nevada gave Catherine Cortez Masto a +3 advantage among registered voters and -2 among likely voters. A Marquette Law School poll of Wisconsin conducted from 10/3-10/9 showed an even race among registered voters and Ron Johnson up 6 points over Mandela Barnes among likely voters.

New documents released under Florida’s sunshine law have revealed more details of the Perla-DeSantis hoodwink operation in San Antonio. DeSantis Public Safety Czar Larry Keefe, the former lawyer for the contractor Florida has already paid $1.5 million for the Vineyard migrant flight, was closely involved in the operation. He directed the “Perla” crew’s operation from Florida. Critically, Keefe made at least one trip to San Antonio to oversee the operation.

From TPM Reader AG …

I very much agree with your strategic focus on abortion in the upcoming elections, and while I certainly don’t see it as an either/or choice, I find myself alternately baffled and furious that national Democrats haven’t made this a centerpiece of their fall campaigns.

I’ve been reading various commentary in recent weeks about the rightward turn by big elements of the Silicon Valley tech community. It’s a complex story with various roots. But at a macro level a significant part of it comes down to something like political physics. Tech became extremely wealthy and extremely powerful, and when government started looking at Big Tech with a more critical eye a lot of the tech people … well, they didn’t like it. That’s not terribly surprising. When you’re used to being a master of the universe and then suddenly a bureaucrat who makes less than $200,000 a year comes asking questions or says you can’t do something, that can seem a little weird and annoying. And your political outlook, if you had one, can start to change. This reminded me of a decade-old episode in the history of American political economy which I watched unfold at the time and is relevant to this discussion.

Do you remember SOPA and the activism against it?

Our document for the day is this email released under the Freedom of Information Act. It is an email dated January 13th, 2021 in which the writer informs the then associate deputy director of the FBI, Paul Abbate, how a substantial portion of FBI personnel were in sympathy with the January 6th insurrectionists.

TPM Reader TK responds to the debate we’re carrying on below …

The Sheriff in Bexar County (San Antonio) Texas has certified that the 50 migrants Ron DeSantis’ team hoodwinked into being sent to Martha’s Vineyard were the victims of a crime. “Based upon the claims of migrants being transported from Bexar County under false pretenses, we are investigating this case as possible Unlawful Restraint.”

I got this interesting email from TPM Reader CN. I disagree with it. And I think it illustrates a kind of self-reinforcing way people think about politics and particularly the Democratic Party. But I wanted to share it with you because I wanted you to be able to make your own judgment. CN’s note comes with the subject line: “You’re wrong and Bernie’s right, Josh.” This is a reference to my post yesterday disagreeing with Bernie Sanders’ argument that Democrats shouldn’t center the final weeks of the campaign on abortion but rather economics and economic justice. As I said in that post, my argument isn’t trying to settle the general direction or focus of the Democratic Party. That’s never going to be one thing. It’s about what makes sense over the next three weeks.

Here’s CN’s response …

Ken Klippenstein has a piece in The Intercept about the Saudi-driven OPEC production cut as the “October Surprise” of the 2022 election cycle — one not simply aimed at maximizing domestic profits and assisting Russia in its war on Ukraine but specifically aimed at bringing Trump and his MAGA-infused GOP back to power. I think he’s right. I do notice though that the experts he quotes making this argument are longtime critics of U.S. policy toward Saudi Arabia. So they are people inclined to see events through a Saudi-hostile lens.

This is frequently a difficulty in making sense of current events. You want to see what the experts say but most experts have their own preconceptions and established narratives through which they are inclined to organize new events. I wanted to add this caution as a limitation or counter to my own view. But it remains my own view. This move is not only an example of the lopsided and outmoded relationship with Saudi Arabia but a specific effort to damage the party the Saudi leader, Mohamed bin Salman, opposes in U.S. domestic politics.

The latest news out of the Mar-a-Lago case, which Josh Kovensky explains here, really makes it hard to see how the government can avoid charging Trump with a crime even if they’d prefer not to. The government appears to have clear, corroborated evidence that after receiving subpoenas for the retrieval of classified documents, Trump directly ordered a resort employee to remove the records from the storerooms where the government’s investigation focused and to his personal residence.