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The White House just released this statement about Roe. Here’s the text and then a few comments from me.

I wanted to do some initial scoping out of the implications of the overturning of Roe for federal politics — both the impact on elections and the chances of passing federal laws to codify Roe.

The first thing is that people will tell you that there’s no practical way a federal abortion rights bill can get passed. That is definitely wrong. Whether or not such a law happens is entirely up to the results of the 2022 midterms. And it doesn’t require heroic assumptions.

In the flurry of reactions to the apparent/reported overturning of Roe last night, I saw a campaigns analyst comment that the odds of the Virginia GOP scoring a trifecta (unified control of state government) in 2023 had fallen dramatically. The Democratic Governor of Pennsylvania, I’m sure along with others I haven’t seen yet, put out a statement essentially saying ‘no need to worry about abortion rights in Pennsylvania as long as I’m here’.

POINT: CNN is now reporting that Justice Roberts planned to dissent from Alito’s majority opinion. He was willing to affirm the 15 week Mississippi law but not overturn Roe in its entirety. That sounds fairly Roberts-like in a way, though it’s notable to me that a Chief Justice would want to be on the dissenting side of perhaps the most historic decision of his tenure when he must have at most equivocal feelings about overturning Roe. In any case, the rapidity with which Roberts’ apparent decision was reported out makes me wonder whether the breakdown in secrecy with this case doesn’t go beyond the leak of Alito’s draft majority decision. Don’t know precisely what this would mean. But keep that in mind. That’s real fast.

In response to a reading recommendation over the weekend I heard from a number of readers who said something along these lines: we’re not the ones escalating. Putin and Russia began this, did all the escalating. Many of these responses came down to this: Putin and Russia are completely in the wrong here. All the escalation is coming from one side.

I wanted to flag your attention to a relatively little seen op-ed by a former federal judge named J. Michael Luttig. The title of the piece: “The Republican blueprint to steal the 2024 election.” Pretty red meat, right? His focus is something we’ve talked about before, the so-called “Independent State Legislature” doctrine. This is the idea — a truly absurd and tendentious reading of the constitution — that holds that state legislatures are the arbiters of the conduct and also the results of federal elections, entirely independent and above the laws of the given state and even the state’s constitution. But before we get into that, let’s get back to Luttig himself who I’ve rather breezily described as a “former federal judge.”

From TPM Reader PT …

I think what’s been really puzzling about the Z War this last week or so is the disconnect between Russia’s propaganda / rhetoric and its actions. 

Let me share a few further thoughts on the current situation in Ukraine, the progress of the Ukraine-Russia war and the chances for further escalation and/or expansion of the conflict. No one knows what’s coming next or how Russia might respond to its escalating mix of battlefield reverses and national humiliations. Without any specialized knowledge in the area I’m especially in the dark. So I rely on the opinion of people who I believe are knowledgeable and have good judgment. For me, in this area, one of those is Tom Nichols. (He’s a defense academic specializing in Russia/Soviet Union and nuclear deterrence policy.) In this thread last night he made clear he’s very concerned about the present situation and what is behind or what is signaled by the escalating rhetoric emanating from Moscow. Maybe not panic level, but very concerned. The salient point from him though is that the decisions about some erratic escalatory actions are going to be made in Moscow and there aren’t a lot levers we have to affect it. That’s a very sobering conclusion.