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Here’s an interesting and thought provoking Twitter thread by a Rand Corporation political scientist, Mike Mazarr, on the chances of a major Russian escalation in Ukraine. It touches on some points I noted yesterday about the dangers of Russian weakness and military failure. (It builds in part off this piece from a British national security think tank, “Operation Z: The Death Throes of an Imperial Delusion.”) On the ground in Ukraine it looks like Russia has failed miserably at its initial war aims and strategies and is now trying to grind out much more limited ambitions in the east. But within Russia and in Russian media rhetoric has escalated to make Ukraine itself almost a side issue. They portray Russia as in an existential struggle or holy war, a war that is really against NATO and the U.S. “Russian television has been flooded with statements urging escalation as part of an existential struggle.” A top legislative leader says: “This is a metaphysical clash between the forces of good and evil… This is truly a holy war we’re waging and we must win.”

Crazy stuff.

I was disappointed to see Elon Musk purchase Twitter. On most of the big questions and conflicts in the world today, he’s on the wrong side. It would probably be better for me if Twitter did not exist. But it does. I have what can only fairly be described as an addiction to it. In any case, it would remain a professional obligation to use Twitter even if I didn’t — it’s how I help distribute what we publish at TPM. The best prediction I’ve seen about what is likely Twitter’s future is neither the optimistic nor the extreme pessimistic views but rather that it will be mostly the same but go back to the less governed model of half a dozen years ago in which there was more harassment, neo-Nazis and government-backed disinformation campaigns. The simple truth is that content moderation is much, much less about “free speech” or unpopular opinions than some random guy DMing pictures of his penis every day for a year to a woman he’s harassing, or hoaxes about people dying, or copyright infringement. Of course, as Musk knows as well as anyone, Twitter is also a great tool for market manipulation and securities fraud. In other words, it’s less about “speech” than the digital amplification of the predatory dimensions of people’s personality disorders.

Here is what caught my eye this morning.

Here’s just the latest revelation from these Jan 6th related texts we keep hearing about. In a way it’s more of the same but the details are telling. This one turns on Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA), yet another far-right House member, now the head of the Freedom Caucus. In the days after Biden was declared the winner of the 2020 election he was texting Mark Meadows insisting that Meadows get DNI John Ratcliffe (another House right-winger who Trump had installed as chief of U.S. intelligence based on essentially no professional background) to have the NSA “immediately seize and begin looking for international comms related to Dominion.” Basically he was pushing the idea that China had hacked Dominion’s voting machines to make Biden the winner.

I recommend reading Josh Kovensky’s run-down on Russian threats to expand the Ukraine War to the breakaway region of Transnistria. To understand just what this is about you have to have a grip on the geography. So I’m going to momentarily focus on that. But I do so to illustrate a larger point about the state of the Ukraine war.

To start off, Transnistria is another of those breakaway separatist statelets which is recognized by Russia and basically no one else. It’s part of Moldova, another former Soviet successor state couched, landlocked, between Ukraine and Romania. Transnistria is a stretched-out slice of land along Moldova’s border to Ukraine, which is to the east. So to situate ourselves in some ways it mirrors the separatist statelets Russia sponsored along the Russian border in eastern Ukraine. Only in this case the separatist statelet in the eastern part of Moldova borders not Russia but Ukraine.

From TPM Reader MB …

“all so that moderate Dems. would have something – anything – to show voters that they deserve to hold onto power.”

This illustrates the reasons for paralysis perfectly.  The party is frozen because there are people vying for control who have wildly different calibrations, perceptions and expectations.  The above quote just completely ignores and dismisses the idea that BIF is something everyone in the party, progressives included, should be able to celebrate and claim credit for (so long as they voted for it, but we’ll get to that).  It’s a victory.  It’s going to help people and our economy.  It is a measurable social good and a demonstrable benefit to society.  Sure, it’s not a unicorn…maybe even looks a little more mule than horse…but it’s still a positive thing. 

From TPM Reader JS …

I like Biden. I took shit from my friends for being for him in the primary. We wanted someone who could win and he did win, Trump gone. He took control of Congress. He passed an infrastructure bill, ended a 20 year war, tons of jobs, COVID is over, appointed a great judge to the Supreme Court, and has done more than anyone else outside of Ukraine to turn the tables on the expected Russian victory that I see as either an incipient WW3 or at the very least a flashpoint in the new Authoritarian vs. Liberalism Cold War. I don’t care about the fact he isn’t a great orator. I’m dismissive of claims he’s too old. He’s done a great job if you look at it from an Al Gore debate counting on my finger policy debate way, which I do.

From TPM Reader DF …

I appreciate the sentiments of RS and PT regarding the impact of BBB’s failure on Dem morale, but it’s not an excuse for the abject failure of the national Democratic Party to not only launch an effective midterm campaign, but defend themselves and their voters. That’s not a result of BBB; it’s a deliberate decision from Biden’s political team to “lower the temperature” that has filtered down to the national party.

From TPM Reader SC …

I agree with you on “single point of failure”. I spent most of last year hoping you were right that BBB in some form would pass but also fearing it might not. I put on a pretty good false bravado about it passing; I didn’t fully believe it.

What got my goat was this “trifecta” nonsense.The Democrats NEVER had both houses of Congress. They NEVER had more than nominal control. And therefore it is silly to blame “The Democratic Party” as if it was some monolith. It never was.

Everyone is breathing a sigh of relief if not for the fact that Emmanuel Macron won the French election than the fact that Marine Le Pen was defeated — and fairly handily. You can be cheered that he won with almost 60% of the vote or sobered by the fact that she got more than 40% and significantly increased her 2017 margin. To me the more striking reality is that there now seems to be in effect two parties in France — a big-tent civic democratic party and a rightist nationalist, revanchist party. The former is winning the elections for now. But no one wins every election.

In 2017 it all seemed contingent. But now it seems more like the norm, the structure of French politics as opposed to a one off situation driven by a series of surprise events.

From TPM Reader EF …

Like many others, I am disappointed and frustrated that BBB did not pass or that Manchin played Lucy with the football so that he could occupy center stage for a year.  I also worry about the demoralizing effects of the process.  But, c’mon folks, get real.  FDR had 70 senators when the New Deal was passed.  Obama barely got the ACA passed with 60 (and then 59 after Kennedy died near the finish line).  Getting BBB done in even its skinnier form was always a longshot with a tied Senate.