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I’ve been fascinated by the evolving Madison Cawthorn “scandal.” As TPM Readers know as well as anyone, House Republicans say batsh*t insane stuff pretty much weekly. They not infrequently make statements in support of fringe racist and domestic terror groups. They endorse borderline sedition (light treason, if you will). These pass with as little trace as a brief summer shower. Yet here we have Cawthorn whipping out this weird Boogie Nights reverie about cocaine-filled orgies among his colleagues in Congress, a den of iniquity the brash young man-boy Cawthorn says he is striving to keep himself pure from. And yet this looks to be on the verge of making him a political dead man walking among congressional Republicans. Kevin McCarthy said yesterday that Cawthorn has “lost my trust” and that if he doesn’t shape up he could be stripped of his committee assignments or worse.

For years I’ve been corresponding with TPM Reader BF. He’s in the national security world, whereas I’m just an outside observer. He’s prone to intense responses to events whereas I’m characterologically more cautious. But this is his field not mine. So in recent days I was struck to see that he thinks I have the Ukraine situation totally wrong and that notwithstanding its battlefield embarrassments and mishaps Putin is on the verge of getting everything he wants and Ukraine is on the verge of what amounts to surrender.

From TPM Reader JJ …

Years ago I worked for a building trades union. I once had a car ride with a fellow staffer, an older Catholic guy who I’d once heard express opposition to abortion.   I thought I’d ask him about it.

I assumed I’d hear a version of the Catholic take on it. Instead, he was refreshingly honest–

“These c**ts have gotten out of control.”

I was offline for a few hours and I came back to the news that ex-President Trump is calling on Vladimir Putin to help him unearth dirt about Joe Biden. I had been thinking it was going to be important going forward to remind people that Trump has repeatedly worked with Vladimir Putin to intervene in U.S. domestic politics and subvert U.S. elections. After all, it seems like Putin is getting less popular in the United States of late. But I guess that won’t be as pressing a need as long as Trump continues to re-collude out in the open on an ongoing basis. So here we are.

If you follow reports closely, you’ve heard that the Ukrainian military has incrementally been reclaiming territory from Russian forces in the north of the country and parts of the south in recent days. The situation is different in the east and southeast, in parts of which Russia has continued to consolidate its possession of territory. There have also been reports of Russian withdrawals. But it’s been hard to disentangle which of these withdrawals are more like retreats in the face of counter-offensives, or simply redeployments to find more defensible positions, or actual withdrawals. All that’s been clear is that in substantial parts of the country Ukraine has been retaking control of territory that had been occupied by the Russian Army.

Today though Russia’s deputy defense minister said that Moscow would “fundamentally cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernigiv” in order to “increase mutual trust for future negotiations to agree and sign a peace deal with Ukraine.”

I’m trying to make sense of how big a deal this is, how new this is and frankly just what to make of it. I was even put slightly on my guard since the reporting is in part from Bob Woodward and it is so reminiscent of the notorious 18 minute gap in Watergate tape recordings. But what the Post and CBS News report this morning is that in the records turned over to the January 6th committee there is a roughly eight hour gap in the record of the President’s actions and calls that maps almost exactly to the period of violent insurrection on Capitol Hill.

Michael Kofman is one of the most important Twitter follows for understanding the Russia-Ukraine war. This morning he has a short thread about Russia’s dismal military performance in Ukraine. While he says he has no doubt the U.S. military would greatly outperform the Russian military, he sees the reaction to those Russian failures as an example that “we may be psychologically unprepared for war with [a] determined opponent that has some parity of capability.”

In other words, when you have a real army on the other side, lots of things can go wrong. The U.S. military has had lots of experience over the last two decades in counter-insurgency conflict, against very lethal and determined enemies. But when it comes to invasions, air combat, armor and the like the U.S. has not faced a peer or near-peer in a very, very long time. The military has an adage that “no plan survives first contact with the enemy.” But if the enemy is weak enough — in terms of technology, training, logistics, firepower — your plan probably can survive first contact and maybe most of the whole engagement.

But there’s a related but distinct issue that keeps coming back to me as I watch this war unfold.

For many Atlanticists in Europe and the United States there is a deep belief that the horror of the invasion of Ukraine — a conflict with a still very uncertain outcome — has nonetheless revitalized not only NATO but a sense of unity and purpose among the world’s civic democracies. I agree with this. Increasingly over the last decade the forces of revanchist authoritarianism have been on the march while those of civic democracy have been mired in internal division and generally unaware of or indifferent to the fact that a conflict is even afoot. And yet the same conflict is underway or continues within the United States itself. It’s quite possible that the economic clout and military might of the United States, around which the resistance to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine revolves, could be absent from the field in less than three years.

TPM Reader SB, like virtually everyone else who wrote in this morning, is all in with TPM Reader JB’s “Punch Them in the Nose” …

In response to the letter from JB, re: “Punch Them In the Nose”: this is exactly right, it’s beyond right, and Democrats and liberals in positions of power and influence ignore these words at the peril of our democracy. Every point JB made, in particular tying Putin and Putin’s Russia to the Republican Party, is not just factually correct but existentially necessary. The rest of the world is watching us, especially Western Europeans who have extensive experience with fascism, authoritarianism, and autocracy, and they see precisely what’s going on in the U.S., and they are watching to see whether or not Democrats and Americans rise to the occasion. We have a Chamberlain wing of the Democratic Party, mostly consultants and so-called “moderates,” that has a risk averse chokehold on Democratic political culture and praxis that permeates the entire political structure, but it goes beyond that.