The Search for Trump’s 2020 Spoiler Candidate

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 19: U.S. President Donald Trump attends a ceremony where he presented the Presidential Medal of Freedom to economist Arthur Laffer on June 19, 2019 in Washington, DC. Laffer was an economic adv... WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 19: U.S. President Donald Trump attends a ceremony where he presented the Presidential Medal of Freedom to economist Arthur Laffer on June 19, 2019 in Washington, DC. Laffer was an economic advisor in the Reagan administration and is considered the father of supply side economics, or the "trickle down theory." (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images) MORE LESS

June 20, 2019 11:44 a.m.

First, I’m always hesitant to recommend people. Because inevitably they’ll say something dumb and people will blame me for it. But I’m really enjoying Aaron Blake’s campaign commentary and number-crunching — consistently shrewd and considered. His column today focuses me on a basic point: it’s very hard to see how President Trump can win reelection in a high turnout head to head race. He’s just stuck way too far down below 50% public support. This is my general thinking of course because, as I’ve been arguing, Trump is in much worse shape than people seem to imagine, at least until quite recently. But it’s worth zooming in on those qualifiers: high turnout and head to head race.

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