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Unforced Errors?

March 7, 2022 4:18 p.m.

The AP has a new story about how unforced errors are potentially getting in the way of the GOP’s path back to a Senate majority in 2022. Most of us are aware of the developments the piece is referring to. You can review them here. I don’t want to get too deeply into the ins and outs of how bad this is for the GOP, whether it’s enough of a problem to keep the Democrats in power. But we know that in general this is a very real dynamic. Democrats managed to hold on to the Senate in 2010 in what was otherwise a brutal midterm rout. It happened again in 2012 — even though Democrats had to defend a ton of marginal pickups from the 2006 cycle. The dynamic is clear cut enough that it’s worth asking whether this is really a matter of “unforced” errors or whether this is what politics is like when politicians run in non-gerrymandered districts (i.e., states).

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