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Fast And Furious

The Omicron surge in New York City is closely following the chronology seen in South Africa.

COVID testing — People wait in long lines in Times Square to get tested for Covid-19 on December 20, 2021 in New York City. New York City, which was initially overwhelmed by the Covid pandemic, has once again seen case numbers surge... People wait in long lines in Times Square to get tested for Covid-19 on December 20, 2021 in New York City. New York City, which was initially overwhelmed by the Covid pandemic, has once again seen case numbers surge as the new omicron variant becomes dominant. Positivity rates in the city now stand at 8.41% with hospitalizations down slightly. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images) MORE LESS

January 18, 2022 11:38 a.m.

New York City was one of the first parts of the United States hit by the Omicron variant. The trajectory of the city’s surge now appears remarkably similar to the pattern we saw earlier in South Africa and other countries.

Data out of South Africa showed a roughly four week interval between the start of the Omicron surge and its peak. “Peak in four weeks and precipitous decline in another two,” said Fareed Abdullah of the South African Medical Research Council. “It was a flash flood more than a wave.”

New York City numbers appear to match this pattern almost exactly.

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