For the last 24 hours or so Russian military bloggers have been claiming that Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who was at one time the top Russian general in Ukraine and is still one of the top commanders in the theater, had been arrested over his involvement in the Wagner Mutiny. This comes after The New York Times report yesterday that he had advance knowledge of the mutiny. But what gets claimed on these mil blogger Telegram channels means almost nothing. It’s a mix of the very most current information and complete nonsense, lies, propaganda, etc. It means almost nothing if you can’t distinguish one from another. But now the Moscow Times, which is a reputable publication, is reporting it too. But so far it’s only the Moscow Times.
I share this with you partly because it would be a very big deal if it happened but also to caution you that I don’t think we should yet treat it as quite totally confirmed. I also share it to give you a sense of the murkiness of the moment, in which potential arrests of some of the highest ranking military officers in the country may or may not have happened and no one seems to be quite sure.