Editors’ Blog

We covered quite a bit of the horse-pill propaganda being peddled as a COVID cure by many in anti-vax circles and by some members of the Trump White House at the time when hydroxychloroquine first emerged as a word that people knew how to pronounce. It provided some dark comedic relief as an absurd storyline to chase during an otherwise very bleak and scary time. (Hydroxychloroquine, you’ll recall, would eventually be replaced in the vaccine-skeptic imagination by an actual livestock pill, ivermectin.)

TPM Reader DD says I’m not seeing the forest for the trees about Democratic prospects in the House. From DD …

Reader reaction with some thoughtful nuance about Dem chances on holding the House

The recent upswing for Democrats across several metrics has folks, including yourself, feeling hopeful that Democrats could somehow maintain control of the House. Now I know you’ve said it’s still a long shot and unlikely but I think that long shot misses the forest for the trees (or actually the trees for the forest).

At the macro level there are plenty of reasons to maintain that hope, and the rising, and real, fortunes of Senate Democrats seem to color that perspective. But with the House it’s a matter of math and race-by-race dynamics. By those measures the House is all but gone for Democrats, although the losses may be low enough that they’re in the hunt to reclaim the majority in 2024.

Another point which comes out of last night’s result. It now seems quite possible, perhaps even probable, that the outcome of the midterms will come down to high stakes GOP redistricting wins that came right at the end of the cycle in NY, FL and OH. I don’t say that to bum anyone out or to predict that Democrats can’t win the House. It is only to note how close it seems likely to be and that those extra seats could well be in the margin.

I’ve just seen it noted that it now appears that in all five post-Dobbs special elections to the House Democrats have improved on Biden’s 2020 performance by at least 2 percentage points. The story from 2020 was that Biden did well enough to beat Trump by a decent margin. But Democratic congressional candidates didn’t do as well as he did. So they’re improving on 2020, which suggests a very different midterm environment than we’ve been hearing about for months.

A bit more on last night’s result in NY-19, which I discussed here. The only minor update is that it didn’t even turn out to be a virtual tie. Democrat Pat Ryan appears to have won with 52% of the vote — a clear if close win. Ryan will only serve for four months. He’s on the November ballot in the new adjoining 18th district. Republican Molinaro will also be on the ballot in a redrawn 19th district against Democrat Josh Riley. The takeaway is the same as last night. Molinaro was and is a first-rate recruit in what the Cook Report calls a dead-even district. The fact that Republicans couldn’t notch a solid win here strongly suggests the governing assumptions about the 2022 midterm are simply wrong.

[ed.note: Since I wrote this post, all the networks have called this race for Democrat Pat Ryan.]

A fascinating story is unfolding in NY-19 — a result that looks very promising for Democratic prospects this fall in the House.

This is a special election to fill a seat vacated by Rep. Antonio Delgado (D), who became Lt. Gov. In itself the race is almost meaningless. The term is only for the rest of this year. But as an indicator of the political climate it’s much more significant. In a strong GOP year this is a district Republicans should take fairly comfortably. Cook calls it a dead even district. What’s more, the Republican, Marc Molinaro, is judged by pretty much everyone to be a perfect GOP recruit for the district. So there’s no excuse. The Republicans should be winning this.

As I write it’s too close to call. In a way, though, the final result doesn’t matter that much. It will essentially be a tie. And New York state election laws allow a week for postmarked absentee ballots to arrive. So we might not know the answer for a week. The key is that this result is not consistent with a GOP wave election, not even a mid-range one.

No big surprises so far tonight in a lightish primary night. Alt-right performance artist Laura Loomer got pretty close to knocking off an incumbent in Florida. But close isn’t enough. Maxwell Frost, a Bernie-backed 25 year old, won his primary against a bunch of veteran Democrats.

New York, which closes at the top of the hour, should provide some drama.

Just a little note to say that I think the Democrats, paradoxically, are resting a bit on their laurels after a couple weeks of solid news and very encouraging prospects in the Senate. Anger, outrage and motivation coming off the Dobbs decision is high and will remain high. But there are limits on how much that energy will translate into electoral outcomes if no specific, promised and quantifiable outcome is on the ballot, which is to say, Roe and Reform: Add two senators and hold the House and Democrats will make Roe the law of the land in January 2023. The opportunity is closing.

Let me just start out by saying this pair deserves each other — truly a dynamic coupling.

We’re covering this in other pieces today. But I want to zoom in on the issue of executive privilege, which Trump’s lawyers have repeatedly invoked in their latest court action. The filing has been mocked, rightly, for various reasons. But I want to zoom in specifically on this issue. Trump claims that many of the documents seized from his estate must be returned to him because they are covered by executive privilege.

This is not how executive privilege works or what it is. Let’s discuss.

A recent Marquette University Law School found that Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) may not be as safely re-electable as he was ahead of his last reelection in 2016.

The poll was released last week, showing RonJohn is trailing a bit behind his Democratic rival — Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes has a 7-percentage point lead over Johnson with 51 percent of the vote compared to his 44 percent.